Rain in Maine on 4th of July; what are the chances?

Fireworks and rain are like oil and water — the two don’t mix. And no one wants it to rain on their parade.

Rain on the 4th of July is concerning to consumers so for this week’s edition, we’re skipping scams, schemes, and recalls to talk about something that could hurt your holiday plans and the bottom line of many businesses that count on a dry day to explode them into the summer season.

After a careful consult with CBS 13 meteorologist and data geek analyst Adam Epstein, I’ll let him take it from here (the guy knows his stuff):

I performed a historical analysis of rain in Portland for July 4th. The recorded data goes back 76 years to 1941. I found that it rained in Portland on July 4th 22 times since then.

That gives us a 29% chance, historically, that it will rain on the 4th of July.

However, you should take a look at the data yourself. You’ll find that on 13 of the rain days, two-tenths of an inch or less of rain was recorded. There have only been two days where over 1 inch of rain fell. One was in 2014, when Tropical Storm Arthur visited Vacationland. It dropped 1.41” of rain on Portland. No fireworks from the Prom that day (they were postponed to the day after).

This year’s forecast appears to yield a concise answer. No, it will not rain.

Stay tuned each day for forecast updates at wgme.com/weather

Jon Chrisos

About Jon Chrisos

Award-winning journalist Jon Chrisos is the investigative and consumer reporter at CBS 13 in Portland. He also anchors weeknights at 5:30. Chrisos is “On Your Side” investigating the stories that make a difference in your life. He’s passionate about helping those who’ve been wronged, exposing government waste, asking tough questions, and uncovering the truth.